The forex market is generally quiet as the week starts. Strong rebound is seen in Asian stock markets which is triggered by Fed's surprise discount rate cut last Friday. Yen crosses continues to rebound further but dollar majors continue to stuck in tight range only. As discussed before, the massive carry trade unwinding is not considered to be completed yet. Fed's discount rate cut, and even Fed Fund rate cut, could halt the current liquidation of riskier assets but the trend will likely continue. But still, with a light economic calendar, and probably support from further rebound in the stock markets, Forex markets will likely continue to consolidate today and this week first.
Data released overnight saw UK Rightmove house prices index rose 0.6% mom, 12.8% yoy. Swiss combined PPI rose 0.1% mom, 2.8% yoy, missing expectation of 0.3% mom, 2.9% yoy. US Leading indicators will be featured in the coming US session and is expected to rebound by rising 0.3% in Jul.
EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3381; (P) 1.3463; (R1) 1.3557; More
EUR/USD engages in choppy sideway trading in tight range below 1.3545 today. Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as long as 1.3482 minor support holds and further rebound to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3567) could be seen. But upside is expected to be limited below 1.3642 support turned resistance. Below 1.3431 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.3360 low and then a retest of 1.3328/29 cluster support.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2483 has completed at 1.3851 already, with bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. The current development is reviving the case that whole up trend from 1.1639 (05 low) has completed after three waves up to 1.3851. That is, first move completed at 1.2978, subsequent consolidation completed at 1.2483 and rise from 1.3483 ended with five waves up to 1.3851. Also, 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822 is just met.
Having said that, sustained break of 1.3328/29 cluster support (38.2% of 1.2483 to 1.3851 at 1.3328 and 23.6% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3851 at 1.3329) will add much credence to such case. The current fall from 1.3851 is not expected to stop here and instead it's expected to extend further to support zone between 1.2978 (medium term resistance turned support) and above mentioned 1.3006 cluster support (61.8% of 1.2483 to 1.3851 at 1.3006 and 38.2% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3851 at 1.3006) before turning into lengthier consolidation. However strong rebound from 1.3328/29 cluster support and a break above 1.3642 will dampen the above view.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9663; (P) 1.9799; (R1) 1.9947; More
Cable continues to consolidate in tight range below 1.9935 today. At this point, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as long as 1.9737 minor support holds. Further recovery could be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 2.0025). But upside should be limited below 2.0156 support turned resistance and bring another fall. Below 1.9737 will bring a test of 1.952 low and probably 1.9621 support too.
In the bigger picture, break of rising trend line support (1.9183, 1.9621) indicates that a medium term top should be in place at 2.0652 already, after failing to break through important 2.0677 target (61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677). Bearish divergence condition is seen in both daily and weekly MACD too. Initial support could be found at between 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.9524) and 1.9621 low. However, sustained trading below this level will encourage add more credence to the case that whole up rally from 1.7047 has completed too and bring deeper decline to next support zone of 1.9183 and 38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 2.0652 at 1.9275 first. Meanwhile, a break above 2.0156 support turned resistance will dampen the above view.
Also, note that regardless of the internal structure, the whole rally from 1.7047 represents resumption of the long term up trend from 1.3680. Even though much deeper correction could be seen, the trend will still remain intact as long as long term rising trend line support (1.3680, 1.7047, now at 1.8327) holds.
Currency |
Long/Buy |
Short/Sell |
Target |
Stop |
Date |
Remarks |
GBP/JPY |
- |
228.15 |
225.90 |
229.05 |
19-11-2007 |
- |
GBP/USD |
2.0430 |
- |
2.0620 |
2.0355 |
16-11-2007 |
Profit booked of 120 pips |
GBP/JPY |
- |
225.90 |
222.80 |
226.85 |
16-11-2007 |
Stop hit of 95 pips |
GBP/JPY |
- |
231.95 |
227.30 |
232.75 |
14-11-2007 |
Profit booked of 465 pips |
EUR/JPY |
- |
161.25 |
158.00 |
162.05 |
13-11-2007 |
Stop hit of 80 pips |
GBP/USD |
- |
2.01060 |
2.0810 |
2.01165 |
07-11-2007 |
Profit booked of 250 pips |
GBP/JPY |
238.35 |
- |
241.00 |
237.75 |
31-10-2007 |
Profit booked of 265 pips |
GBP/JPY |
- |
237.55 |
234.50 |
238.25 |
30-10-2007 |
Stop hit of 70 pips |
GBP/USD |
2.0430 |
- |
2.0600 |
2.0375 |
24-10-2007 |
Profit booked of 170 pips |
GBP/JPY |
- |
236.85 |
234.50 |
237.55 |
19-10-2007 |
Profit booked of 235 pips |
USD/JPY |
- |
115.30 |
114.10 |
115.90 |
19-10-2007 |
Profit booked of 120 pips |
EUR/JPY |
- |
165.70 |
164.50 |
166.35 |
17-10-2007 |
Profit booked of 120 pips |
EUR/JPY |
164.70 |
- |
166.50 |
164.25 |
17-10-2007 |
Profit booked of 120 pips |
GBP/USD |
- |
2.0430 |
2.0250 |
2.0475 |
15-10-2007 |
Profit booked of 135 pips |
GBP/USD |
2.0250 |
- |
2.0420 |
2.0185 |
12-10-2007 |
Profit booked of 110 pips |
GBP/JPY |
- |
239.40 |
237.00 |
240.25 |
11-10-2007 |
Profit booked of 190 pips |
FOREX SYGNALS SYSTEM
EURO
Latest trading recommendations 08.00 BST, 03.00 EST) 23-05-08
Currency | Date | Time | Strategy | First Target | Second target |
EUR/US$ (buy) | 22-05-08 | 13.00 | Short term buy at 1.5635 | 1.5655 | 1.5675 |
EUR/US$ (sell) | 23-05-08 | 08.00 | Short-term, sell at 1.5810 | 1.5780 | 1.5750 |
US$/CHF (buy) | 23-05-08 | 08.00 | Short term, buy at 1.0255 | 1.0275 | 1.0295 |
US$/CHF (sell) | 22-05-08 | 13.00 | Short term, sell at 1.0395 | 1.0375 | 1.0355 |
AUD/US$ | 21-05-08 | 13.00 | Short term, sell at 0.9650 | 0.9620 | 0.9590 |
US$/CAD | 21-05-08 | 13.00 | Short term, buy at 0.9830 | 0.9850 | 0.9870 |
EUR/CHF | 19-05-08 | 13.00 | Short term, sell at 1.6350 | 1.6330 | 1.6310 |
(We suggest investors make their own stop-loss decisions. We will, however, assume that all trades have stop losses at 30 pips from entry unless we advise otherwise)
Pound
Latest short-term trading recommendations 08.00 BST, (03.00 EST) 23-05-08
Currency | Date | Time | Strategy | First target | Second target |
GBP/US$ (buy) | 23-05-08 | 08.00 | Short term buy at 1.9550 | 1.9580 | 1.9610 |
GBP/US$ (sell) | 23-05-08 | 08.00 | Short term sell at 1.9840 | 1.9815 | 1.9790 |
EUR/GBP (buy) | 06-05-08 | 13.00 | Short term, buy at 0.7810 | 0.7830 | 0.7850 |
EUR/GBP (sell) | 23-05-08 | 08.00 | Short term, sell at 0.8000 | 0.7980 | 0.7960 |
(We suggest investors make their own decisions on stop-loss positions. We will, however assume that all trades have stop losses at 30 points unless we advise otherwise)
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment