Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports |

FX Awaits Barrage of Data

At 1:00 AM Japan June Housing Starts y/y (exp -3.2%, prev -10.7%)
At 2:00 AM Germany June Retail Sales m/m (exp 1.0%, prev -1.8%)
Germany June Retail Sales y/y (exp -1.7%, prev -3.7%)
At 4:00 AM Germany July Unemployment Rate (exp 9.0%, prev 9.1%)
At 5:00 AM Eurozone July Business Climate (exp 1.46, prev 1.54)
Eurozone July HICP flash y/y (exp 1.9%, prev 1.9%)
Eurozone June Unemployment Rate (exp 7.0%, prev 7.0%)
At 5:30 AM UK July GfK Survey (exp -4.0, prev -3.0)
At 8:30 AM US June core PCE m/m (exp 0.2%, prev 0.1%)
US June core PCE y/y (exp n/f, prev 1.9%)
US June PCE index m/m (exp n/f, prev 0.5%)
US June PCE index y/y (exp n/f, prev 2.3%)
US June Consumption (exp 0.2%, prev 0.5%)
US June Personal Income (exp 0.5%, prev 0.4%)
US Q2 Employment Cost Index (exp 0.9%, prev 0.8%)
Canada May GDP m/m (exp 0.4%, prev 0.3%)
At 9:45 AM US July Chicago PMI (exp 58.0, prev 60.2)
At 10:00 AM US July Consumer Confidence (exp 105.0, prev 103.9)

The dollar continued to give back gains in early Tuesday trading, slipping through 1.37 against the euro and falling beneath 2.03 versus the sterling. The coming session will see a barrage of economic reports for traders to assess the strength of the economies in the Eurozone, US and Canada. The greenback's rebound from last week may be coming to an end, as traders are poised to resume the currency's downtrend against the majors.

US economic reports due out include the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the PCE index, June consumption, personal income, Q2 employment cost index, July Chicago PMI and July consumer confidence. The monthly core PCE figure is seen edging up slightly to 0.2% from 0.1%. Consumption for June is forecasted to slip to 0.2%, down from 0.5%, while personal income is expected to edge up slightly to 0.5% versus 0.4%. The Chicago PMI report is seen falling to 58.0, down from June at 60.2. Meanwhile, the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence is expected to improve to 105.0, down from 103.9.

Yen Falls on Mixed Data

The yen relinquished some of its recent gains against the majors, falling to 119 versus the dollar and 163.64 against the euro. Japan's June unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to its lowest level in 9-years at 3.7% while the jobs-to-applicants ratio improved to 1.07, from 1.06. However, the June all-households spending were up by just 0.1%, falling short of estimates for a 0.7% annualized improvement and the monthly figure fell by 0.2%. The wage earner household spending fell by 0.4%. Japan's manufacturing PMI fell beneath the key 50-level for the first time in 4-years, dipping into the territory of contraction at 49.0. The PMI output index also fell to 48.1 while output prices climbed to its highest reading ever at 52.6.

Euro Firms Ahead of Data

The euro recovered ahead of several key reports due out from the Eurozone later in the session. Germany's retail sales are seen improving in June, rising on a monthly basis to 1.0% and reversing the previous month's 1.8% decline and improving to a 1.8% decline versus a 3.7% drop a year earlier. The unemployment rate in Germany is also forecasted to fall to 9.0% from 9.1% in June.

Eurozone reports will also see unemployment for July, seen unchanged at 7.0%. The HICP flash is forecasted to hold steady at 1.9%, while the business climate is seen slipping to 1.46 from 1.54.

We continue to see further euro strength, with the recent drop viewed as a retracement prior to a resumption of its uptrend toward the 1.40-mark against the dollar

MG Financial Group

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