Asian Morning Update
Yesterday was a particularly quiet day on the release front with the only other stats published being the June ISM Factory data which managed to edge above forecast of 55.0 to come in at 56.0. The orders index rose 0.7 to 60.3 and prices paid dipping nicely to 68.0 and just below forecasts of 69.0. The 3-month average is now rising and there are early signs of the recovery that has been forecast for H2 but production is still around 13% lower than a year ago and the housing market is obviously a lot lower.
So even though the European manufacturing PMI numbers were net disappointing with only Germany putting in a positive number to save the EU face, the level of growth still remains stronger. This allowed the Dollar to resume the downtrend directly and approach the 1.3681 level against the Euro. The Pound has pushed above the 2.0131 high and this keeps the medium term targets at 1.40-1.41 Euro and 2.0505 Pound well on line to be met later this month before the August summer doldrums take us into a correction.
With tomorrow being a U.S. bank holiday we shouldn’t get the same degree of weakness – and without having done the analysis I can’t say whether the first part of the move is over just yet. However, tomorrow should provide consolidation and probably Thursday also with the BOE and ECB rate decisions. Who knows this could even last into next week given that the pullbacks since the Dollar highs have been so shallow it tends to point to a rather large correction now before the next leg lower.
More later when the analysis is complete.
Asian economic releases expected from Asia today are:
Japan June Monetary Base (YoY) - 4.2%
Australia May Retail Sales (MoM) +0.7%
Australia May Building Approvals (MoM) - 1.4%
FOREX SYGNALS SYSTEM
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
TODAY RECOMMENDATION
GBP / USD
3 July 2007 04:37:26
Closed:2.0171
Expected Range 2.0130 - 2.0250
Support 2.0131 / 2.0086 / 2.0057
Resistance 2.0185 / 2.0225 / 2.0283
Recommendation Buy 2.0150 TP 2.0225 SL 2.0130
EUR/USD
3 July 2007 04:36:04
Closed:1.3622
Expected Range 1.3570 - 13715
Support 1.3600 / 1.3546 / 1.3507
Resistance 1.3655 / 1.3680 / 1.3725
Recommendation Buy 1.3600 TP 1.3683 SL 1.3580
USD / JPY
3 July 2007 04:36:42
Closed:122.41
Expected Range 121.67 - 123.00
Support 122.10 / 121.85 / 121.47
Resistance 122.53 / 122.98 / 123.12
Recommendation Sell 122.55 TP 122.05 SL 122.80
Buy 122.00 TP 122.66 SL 121.80
USD/CHF
3 July 2007 04:38:11
Closed:1.2107
Expected Range 1.2050 - 2200
Support 1.2090 / 1.2052 / 1.2010
Resistance 1.2147 / 1.2191 / 1.2215
Recommendation Sell 1.2155 TP 1.2080 SL 1.2200
Buy 1.2080 TP 1.2146 SL 1.2052
3 July 2007 04:37:26
Closed:2.0171
Expected Range 2.0130 - 2.0250
Support 2.0131 / 2.0086 / 2.0057
Resistance 2.0185 / 2.0225 / 2.0283
Recommendation Buy 2.0150 TP 2.0225 SL 2.0130
EUR/USD
3 July 2007 04:36:04
Closed:1.3622
Expected Range 1.3570 - 13715
Support 1.3600 / 1.3546 / 1.3507
Resistance 1.3655 / 1.3680 / 1.3725
Recommendation Buy 1.3600 TP 1.3683 SL 1.3580
USD / JPY
3 July 2007 04:36:42
Closed:122.41
Expected Range 121.67 - 123.00
Support 122.10 / 121.85 / 121.47
Resistance 122.53 / 122.98 / 123.12
Recommendation Sell 122.55 TP 122.05 SL 122.80
Buy 122.00 TP 122.66 SL 121.80
USD/CHF
3 July 2007 04:38:11
Closed:1.2107
Expected Range 1.2050 - 2200
Support 1.2090 / 1.2052 / 1.2010
Resistance 1.2147 / 1.2191 / 1.2215
Recommendation Sell 1.2155 TP 1.2080 SL 1.2200
Buy 1.2080 TP 1.2146 SL 1.2052
Monday, July 2, 2007
TODAY RECOMMENDATION
GBP / USD
2 July 2007 14:13:46
Price ; 2.0077
Expected Range 2.0131 - 2.0000
Support 2.0030 / 1.9982 / 1.9930
Resistance 2.0105 / 2.0132 / 2.0180
Recommendation sell 2.0085-95, SL 2.0135, TP 2.0035
buy 2.0005, SL 1.9955, TP 2.0055
EUR/USD
2 July 2007 14:26:12
Price ; 1.3542
Expected Range 1.3585 - 1.3502
Support 1.3462 / 1.3391 / 1.3352
Resistance 1.3572 / 1.3611 / 1.3682
Recommendation buy 1.3545, SL 1.3495, TP 1.3585
USD / JPY
2 July 2007 14:38:46
Price ; 122.75
Expected Range 123.39 - 122.22
Support 122.86 / 122.60 / 122.26
Resistance 123.46 / 123.80 / 124.06
Recommendation sell 122.75, SL 123.25, TP 122.25
USD/CHF
2 July 2007 15:11:37
Price ; 1.2167
Expected Range 1.2259 - 1.2126
Support 1.2170 / 1.2126 / 1.2045
Resistance 1.2226 / 1.2285 / 1.2420
Recommendation buy 1.2125-30, SL 1.2075, TP 1.2175
sell on pullback 1.2215-25, SL 1.2255, TP 1.2155
2 July 2007 14:13:46
Price ; 2.0077
Expected Range 2.0131 - 2.0000
Support 2.0030 / 1.9982 / 1.9930
Resistance 2.0105 / 2.0132 / 2.0180
Recommendation sell 2.0085-95, SL 2.0135, TP 2.0035
buy 2.0005, SL 1.9955, TP 2.0055
EUR/USD
2 July 2007 14:26:12
Price ; 1.3542
Expected Range 1.3585 - 1.3502
Support 1.3462 / 1.3391 / 1.3352
Resistance 1.3572 / 1.3611 / 1.3682
Recommendation buy 1.3545, SL 1.3495, TP 1.3585
USD / JPY
2 July 2007 14:38:46
Price ; 122.75
Expected Range 123.39 - 122.22
Support 122.86 / 122.60 / 122.26
Resistance 123.46 / 123.80 / 124.06
Recommendation sell 122.75, SL 123.25, TP 122.25
USD/CHF
2 July 2007 15:11:37
Price ; 1.2167
Expected Range 1.2259 - 1.2126
Support 1.2170 / 1.2126 / 1.2045
Resistance 1.2226 / 1.2285 / 1.2420
Recommendation buy 1.2125-30, SL 1.2075, TP 1.2175
sell on pullback 1.2215-25, SL 1.2255, TP 1.2155
Forex Exchange Morning Report
New Zealand Dollar: NZD carries on.
The NZD hovered just under 0.7700 on Friday as GDP printed in line with market expectations of 1.0% and slightly higher than RBNZ forecasts of 0.8%. During the overnight session the NZD surged to fresh 25 year highs against the USD, hitting a peak of 0.7740 as market participants got back on board the carry trade. The NZD was also driven higher as investors sold USD overnight, reacting to higher oil prices and weaker than expected personal income and spending data out of the US.
Australian Dollar: AUD hits fresh highs.
With a lack of data out of Australia on Friday, the AUD traded in a tight range of 0.8462 to 0.8482 during our session. During the offshore session weaker-than-expected US data coupled with higher oil prices saw the AUD break through 0.8500 and hit a new 18 year high of 0.8522 against the USD. With the market looking ahead to the RBA’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday, market participants signalled overnight that they have moved on from recent days of risk aversion with the carry trade back in vogue, prompting AUD buying.
Major Currencies: Easing inflation concerns see USD ease.
The USD eased back on Friday, particularly against the euro and JPY, with investors preferring to step back from the currency in the wake of the Federal Reserve keeping benchmark interest rates unchanged last week. With the Fed having suggested core inflation has eased of late, pundits appear to have boosted their view that interest rates will now remain steady for some time. This view was further confirmed when data released showed US May inflation as measured by core personal consumption expenditure was in line with expectations. Elsewhere, the GBP continued to rally, firmly holding above 2.0000 on growing expectations of two further rate hikes by the BoE, the first hike being expected as early as this week.
Overnight News
The US May core PCE deflator rose 0.1%. This lowered annual inflation in this series to below the Fed’s key 2% comfort zone, which saw yields fall briefly.
US May personal income increased by 0.4% and consumption by 0.5%. Wages and salaries were up 0.4%, while the consumption increase was driven by non-durables up 1.4%.
US May construction spending leapt 0.9%. Non-residential drove the increase (up 2.5%), while residential investment remains in the doldrums (down another 0.8%).
US June Chicago PMI held up better than expected, with only a small fall to 60.2 vs May’s surprisingly strong 61.7. New orders, production, and employment all remain at historically solid levels.
US June UoM consumer sentiment was revised up to 85.3, a little stronger than expected. The level remains well below the May outturn, reflecting higher energy prices and interest rates.
Euroland data: June economic sentiment fell to 111.5 from a revised 112.1 in May (was 111.9). June consumer confidence dipped a touch to -2 from -1, as expected. June CPI flash estimate was flat at 1.9%yr, as expected.
UK May net consumer credit bounced back a little to £0.84bn from its ten-year low of £0.45bn in Apr. Higher interest rates are having a large impact on credit demand. June GfK consumer confidence also slipped a notch to -3 from its twoyear high of -2 in May. May mortgage lending unexpectedly fell slightly to £8.7bn from £8.76bn. The data is consistent with slower house price growth in 2007H2.
UK Q1 business investment was revised up to -0.6% from -1.3%. The quarterly weakness came from the manufacturing sector.
UK Q1 GDP was unrevised at 0.7% (annual rate revised to 3.0% from 2.9%).
UK Q1 current account deficit narrowed to £12.2bn, but the annual level took a hit from a revision to the Q4 deficit from £12.6bn to a hefty £14.46bn. The deficit with EU countries widened, while that with non-EU countries narrowed.
Canada Apr GDP was unchanged in Apr, whereas a small increase had been expected. The month was dragged down by weak wholesale trade, vehicle production and oil and gas exploration.
The NZD hovered just under 0.7700 on Friday as GDP printed in line with market expectations of 1.0% and slightly higher than RBNZ forecasts of 0.8%. During the overnight session the NZD surged to fresh 25 year highs against the USD, hitting a peak of 0.7740 as market participants got back on board the carry trade. The NZD was also driven higher as investors sold USD overnight, reacting to higher oil prices and weaker than expected personal income and spending data out of the US.
Australian Dollar: AUD hits fresh highs.
With a lack of data out of Australia on Friday, the AUD traded in a tight range of 0.8462 to 0.8482 during our session. During the offshore session weaker-than-expected US data coupled with higher oil prices saw the AUD break through 0.8500 and hit a new 18 year high of 0.8522 against the USD. With the market looking ahead to the RBA’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday, market participants signalled overnight that they have moved on from recent days of risk aversion with the carry trade back in vogue, prompting AUD buying.
Major Currencies: Easing inflation concerns see USD ease.
The USD eased back on Friday, particularly against the euro and JPY, with investors preferring to step back from the currency in the wake of the Federal Reserve keeping benchmark interest rates unchanged last week. With the Fed having suggested core inflation has eased of late, pundits appear to have boosted their view that interest rates will now remain steady for some time. This view was further confirmed when data released showed US May inflation as measured by core personal consumption expenditure was in line with expectations. Elsewhere, the GBP continued to rally, firmly holding above 2.0000 on growing expectations of two further rate hikes by the BoE, the first hike being expected as early as this week.
Overnight News
The US May core PCE deflator rose 0.1%. This lowered annual inflation in this series to below the Fed’s key 2% comfort zone, which saw yields fall briefly.
US May personal income increased by 0.4% and consumption by 0.5%. Wages and salaries were up 0.4%, while the consumption increase was driven by non-durables up 1.4%.
US May construction spending leapt 0.9%. Non-residential drove the increase (up 2.5%), while residential investment remains in the doldrums (down another 0.8%).
US June Chicago PMI held up better than expected, with only a small fall to 60.2 vs May’s surprisingly strong 61.7. New orders, production, and employment all remain at historically solid levels.
US June UoM consumer sentiment was revised up to 85.3, a little stronger than expected. The level remains well below the May outturn, reflecting higher energy prices and interest rates.
Euroland data: June economic sentiment fell to 111.5 from a revised 112.1 in May (was 111.9). June consumer confidence dipped a touch to -2 from -1, as expected. June CPI flash estimate was flat at 1.9%yr, as expected.
UK May net consumer credit bounced back a little to £0.84bn from its ten-year low of £0.45bn in Apr. Higher interest rates are having a large impact on credit demand. June GfK consumer confidence also slipped a notch to -3 from its twoyear high of -2 in May. May mortgage lending unexpectedly fell slightly to £8.7bn from £8.76bn. The data is consistent with slower house price growth in 2007H2.
UK Q1 business investment was revised up to -0.6% from -1.3%. The quarterly weakness came from the manufacturing sector.
UK Q1 GDP was unrevised at 0.7% (annual rate revised to 3.0% from 2.9%).
UK Q1 current account deficit narrowed to £12.2bn, but the annual level took a hit from a revision to the Q4 deficit from £12.6bn to a hefty £14.46bn. The deficit with EU countries widened, while that with non-EU countries narrowed.
Canada Apr GDP was unchanged in Apr, whereas a small increase had been expected. The month was dragged down by weak wholesale trade, vehicle production and oil and gas exploration.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
TODAY RECOMMENDATION ( GMT + 7 )
GBP / USD
28 June 2007 14:03:12
Price ; 2.0029
Expected Range 2.0073 - 1.9928
Support 1.9949 / 1.9906 / 1.9884
Resistance 2.0015 / 2.0036 / 2.0079
Recommendation sell 2.0060-70, SL 2.0110, TP 2.0010
EUR/USD
28 June 2007 05:22:58
Closed:1.3446
Expected Range 1.3410 - 1.3476
Support 1.3425 / 1.3392 / 1.3369
Resistance 1.3454 / 1.376 / 1.3502
Recommendation Sell 1.3476 TP 1.3410 SL 1.3480
Buy 1.3420 SL 1.3474 SL 1.3400
USD / JPY
28 June 2007 05:23:46
Closed:122.66
Expected Range 122.10 - 123.00
Support 122.30 / 121.98 / 121.57
Resistance 122.80 / 123.13 / 123.57
Recommendation Sell 123.00 TP 122.30 SL 123.50
USD/CHF
28 June 2007 05:25:08
Closed:1.2286
Expected Range 1.2250 - 1.2318
Support 1.2257 / 1.2220 / 1.2202
Resistance 1.2300 / 1.2332 / 1.2351
Recommendation Buy 1.2250 TP 1.2300 SL 1.2220
Sell 1.2300 TP 1.2260 SL 1.2320
28 June 2007 14:03:12
Price ; 2.0029
Expected Range 2.0073 - 1.9928
Support 1.9949 / 1.9906 / 1.9884
Resistance 2.0015 / 2.0036 / 2.0079
Recommendation sell 2.0060-70, SL 2.0110, TP 2.0010
EUR/USD
28 June 2007 05:22:58
Closed:1.3446
Expected Range 1.3410 - 1.3476
Support 1.3425 / 1.3392 / 1.3369
Resistance 1.3454 / 1.376 / 1.3502
Recommendation Sell 1.3476 TP 1.3410 SL 1.3480
Buy 1.3420 SL 1.3474 SL 1.3400
USD / JPY
28 June 2007 05:23:46
Closed:122.66
Expected Range 122.10 - 123.00
Support 122.30 / 121.98 / 121.57
Resistance 122.80 / 123.13 / 123.57
Recommendation Sell 123.00 TP 122.30 SL 123.50
USD/CHF
28 June 2007 05:25:08
Closed:1.2286
Expected Range 1.2250 - 1.2318
Support 1.2257 / 1.2220 / 1.2202
Resistance 1.2300 / 1.2332 / 1.2351
Recommendation Buy 1.2250 TP 1.2300 SL 1.2220
Sell 1.2300 TP 1.2260 SL 1.2320
TODAY RECOMMENDATION
GBP / USD
28 June 2007 05:24:23
Closed:1.9986
Expected Range 1.9908 - 2.0005
Support 1.9940 / 1.9905 / 1.9865
Resistance 1.9991 / 2.0005 / 2.0024
Recommendation Sell 1.9990 TP 1.9935 SL 2.0005
Buy 1.9950 TP 2.0000 SL 1.9930
EUR/USD
28 June 2007 05:22:58
Closed:1.3446
Expected Range 1.3410 - 1.3476
Support 1.3425 / 1.3392 / 1.3369
Resistance 1.3454 / 1.376 / 1.3502
Recommendation Sell 1.3476 TP 1.3410 SL 1.3480
Buy 1.3420 SL 1.3474 SL 1.3400
USD / JPY
28 June 2007 05:23:46
Closed:122.66
Expected Range 122.10 - 123.00
Support 122.30 / 121.98 / 121.57
Resistance 122.80 / 123.13 / 123.57
Recommendation Sell 123.00 TP 122.30 SL 123.50
USD/CHF
28 June 2007 05:25:08
Closed:1.2286
Expected Range 1.2250 - 1.2318
Support 1.2257 / 1.2220 / 1.2202
Resistance 1.2300 / 1.2332 / 1.2351
Recommendation Buy 1.2250 TP 1.2300 SL 1.2220
Sell 1.2300 TP 1.2260 SL 1.2320
28 June 2007 05:24:23
Closed:1.9986
Expected Range 1.9908 - 2.0005
Support 1.9940 / 1.9905 / 1.9865
Resistance 1.9991 / 2.0005 / 2.0024
Recommendation Sell 1.9990 TP 1.9935 SL 2.0005
Buy 1.9950 TP 2.0000 SL 1.9930
EUR/USD
28 June 2007 05:22:58
Closed:1.3446
Expected Range 1.3410 - 1.3476
Support 1.3425 / 1.3392 / 1.3369
Resistance 1.3454 / 1.376 / 1.3502
Recommendation Sell 1.3476 TP 1.3410 SL 1.3480
Buy 1.3420 SL 1.3474 SL 1.3400
USD / JPY
28 June 2007 05:23:46
Closed:122.66
Expected Range 122.10 - 123.00
Support 122.30 / 121.98 / 121.57
Resistance 122.80 / 123.13 / 123.57
Recommendation Sell 123.00 TP 122.30 SL 123.50
USD/CHF
28 June 2007 05:25:08
Closed:1.2286
Expected Range 1.2250 - 1.2318
Support 1.2257 / 1.2220 / 1.2202
Resistance 1.2300 / 1.2332 / 1.2351
Recommendation Buy 1.2250 TP 1.2300 SL 1.2220
Sell 1.2300 TP 1.2260 SL 1.2320
Forex Exchange Morning Report
New Zealand Dollar: Carry trade unwinding back on?
With regional equity markets recording noticeable falls yesterday and markets still spooked by the US sub-prime mortgage market the focus was very much on the unwinding of the carry trade. NZD/JPY started the day around 94.40 and steadily headed lower which in turn put pressure on the NZD as it struggled to stay above 0.7650. Something had to give and when it did the NZD fell as low as 0.7572 during the offshore timezone with a lot of the flows coming from models reacting to price action rather than discretionary accounts taking big risk aversion bets. NZD/JPY dropped as low as 92.60 but has since recovered to open this morning around 93.05.
Australian Dollar: AUD hit hard on crosses
The AUD suffered for all the same reasons as the NZ dollar with selling pressure on the crosses knocking it from 0.8460 at the open to a 2 week low of 0.8355 overnight. AUD/JPY fell as low as 102.20 from opening levels above 104.00. The AUD managed a mild recovery late NY time to end the session around 0.8380 however more downside tests could be in the offing if we see further fallout from Asian stockmarkets today.
Major Currencies: Yen rebounds on risk aversion
The risk aversion theme continued yesterday, with the further unwinding of yen funded carry trades. As a result, the Japanese currency made broadbased gains rebounding from multi-year lows against the USD and euro. JPY fell from an early high of 123.27 to post an overnight low of 122.23, while EUR/JPY has slipped more than 2% from last week's record highs. Despite a softer than expected US durable goods reading for May, the euro was unable to sustain early gains as focus now turns to tomorrow's FOMC outcome.
Japanese retail sales slightly better than expected in May. The 0.1%yr headline compares to expectations of 0.4% decline, and the -0.7% outcome of the prior month. The ex-automotive series expanded 0.7%yr, against a 1.0% gain in April.
Japanese small business confidence fell back in June. The headline index fell to 48.4 from 49.3 in May. The manufacturing segment came in at 48.7 and the remainder at 48.2.
US durable goods orders down 2.8% in May. After two months of stronger outcomes, durable orders unwound some of their recent recovery in May. It was no surprise that civilian aircraft orders were down 23%; that was consistent with Boeing data. But there was softness elsewhere in the report, including the core capital goods component, down for the first month in three, by 3%. However, this is often a volatile report, reflecting the typically lumpy nature of orders. If we look at the figures on a three month annualised basis, we see that core capital goods orders have turned around from -18% in the three months to Feb, to +7.5% in the May quarter. So the latest data are not soft enough to undermine the view that there is something of a factory sector revival underway in the current quarter; and that business investment is likely to pick up as 2007 progresses. The modest but positive gains in both shipments and inventories are also consistent with an improving activity picture.
UK CBI retail survey down from 31 to 17 in June. June retail sales slowed sharply according to the Confederation of British Industry survey. This could be due to the cooler weather this month, or it could be a correction lower after several stronger readings that did not sit well with the more subdued official retail sales figures of the last few months. Or there may be a genuine consumer slowdown emerging - something that various members of the BoE monetary policy committee suspect is the case. This result does not resolve the issue but it certainly helps keep alive the possibility that the BoE waits a little longer to assess the incoming data flow before tightening again. In other UK news, British Bankers' Association figures showed stronger mortgage lending in May, although that might reflect shifting market share between the various types of lenders.
With regional equity markets recording noticeable falls yesterday and markets still spooked by the US sub-prime mortgage market the focus was very much on the unwinding of the carry trade. NZD/JPY started the day around 94.40 and steadily headed lower which in turn put pressure on the NZD as it struggled to stay above 0.7650. Something had to give and when it did the NZD fell as low as 0.7572 during the offshore timezone with a lot of the flows coming from models reacting to price action rather than discretionary accounts taking big risk aversion bets. NZD/JPY dropped as low as 92.60 but has since recovered to open this morning around 93.05.
Australian Dollar: AUD hit hard on crosses
The AUD suffered for all the same reasons as the NZ dollar with selling pressure on the crosses knocking it from 0.8460 at the open to a 2 week low of 0.8355 overnight. AUD/JPY fell as low as 102.20 from opening levels above 104.00. The AUD managed a mild recovery late NY time to end the session around 0.8380 however more downside tests could be in the offing if we see further fallout from Asian stockmarkets today.
Major Currencies: Yen rebounds on risk aversion
The risk aversion theme continued yesterday, with the further unwinding of yen funded carry trades. As a result, the Japanese currency made broadbased gains rebounding from multi-year lows against the USD and euro. JPY fell from an early high of 123.27 to post an overnight low of 122.23, while EUR/JPY has slipped more than 2% from last week's record highs. Despite a softer than expected US durable goods reading for May, the euro was unable to sustain early gains as focus now turns to tomorrow's FOMC outcome.
Japanese retail sales slightly better than expected in May. The 0.1%yr headline compares to expectations of 0.4% decline, and the -0.7% outcome of the prior month. The ex-automotive series expanded 0.7%yr, against a 1.0% gain in April.
Japanese small business confidence fell back in June. The headline index fell to 48.4 from 49.3 in May. The manufacturing segment came in at 48.7 and the remainder at 48.2.
US durable goods orders down 2.8% in May. After two months of stronger outcomes, durable orders unwound some of their recent recovery in May. It was no surprise that civilian aircraft orders were down 23%; that was consistent with Boeing data. But there was softness elsewhere in the report, including the core capital goods component, down for the first month in three, by 3%. However, this is often a volatile report, reflecting the typically lumpy nature of orders. If we look at the figures on a three month annualised basis, we see that core capital goods orders have turned around from -18% in the three months to Feb, to +7.5% in the May quarter. So the latest data are not soft enough to undermine the view that there is something of a factory sector revival underway in the current quarter; and that business investment is likely to pick up as 2007 progresses. The modest but positive gains in both shipments and inventories are also consistent with an improving activity picture.
UK CBI retail survey down from 31 to 17 in June. June retail sales slowed sharply according to the Confederation of British Industry survey. This could be due to the cooler weather this month, or it could be a correction lower after several stronger readings that did not sit well with the more subdued official retail sales figures of the last few months. Or there may be a genuine consumer slowdown emerging - something that various members of the BoE monetary policy committee suspect is the case. This result does not resolve the issue but it certainly helps keep alive the possibility that the BoE waits a little longer to assess the incoming data flow before tightening again. In other UK news, British Bankers' Association figures showed stronger mortgage lending in May, although that might reflect shifting market share between the various types of lenders.
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