Great British Pound(GBP)
The British pound dropped down in a strong bearish pattern to hit the major support level at 2.0060s. The pressure on the buying side was obvious at the bottom which in role pushed the pound towards the upside to close then in a balanced pattern; nevertheless the technical indicators show the upside move for the week ahead.
The trading range for today might be between the key resistance level at 2.0200 and the key support level at 2.0050.
The general trend is up as far as 1.9475 and 1.9360 remains intact targets now at 2.0100 and 2.0240
Recommendation : We expect buying sterling above 2.0080 with a target at 2.0145, stop loss below 2.0055.
EURO
The European currency dropped down last Friday to hit the key support level at 1.3590s to reveres then towards the upside in order to bounce some of the losses due to the downside drop; the euro then opened the upside channel to set the target at 1.3670s major resistance level in the week ahead.
The trading range for today might be between the key resistance level at 1.3670 and the key support level at 1.3580.
The general trend is up as far as 1.3235 remains intact targets now at 1.3700 and 1.3840
Recommendation : We expect buying euro above 1.3618 with a target at 1.3670, stop loss below 1.3580
SWISS Frank(CHF)
Since the dollar against the SWISS Frank drove through the upside channel last Friday at the beginning of the session to drop down then in terms of recovering the bullish losses; this move might be considered a preparation for a downside drop in the upcoming days.
The trading range for today will be between the key resistance at 1.2220 and the key support at 1.2130.
The general trend is down as far as 1.2540 remains intact, targets at 1.1875 and 1.1665.
Recommendation : We expect buying USD/CHF above 1.2150 with a target at 1.2220, stop loss below 1.2100.
FOREX SYGNALS SYSTEM
Monday, July 9, 2007
OUR RECOMMENDATION
HANGSENG 
9 July 2007 13:17:22
Expected Range : 22580 - 22750
Support : 22580 / 22520 / 22450
Resistance : 22750 / 22800 / 22850
Recommendation : Sell 22750
TP 22650 , SL 22800
GBP / USD
9 July 2007 13:39:19
Price ; 2.0103
Expected Range : 2.0149 - 2.0042
Support : 2.0056 / 2.0015 / 1.9974
Resistance : 2.0140 / 2.0190 / 2.0206
Recommendation : sell 2.0095, SL 2.0145, TP 2.0045
buy 2.0145, SL 2.0095, TP 2.0195
EUR/USD
9 July 2007 14:06:32
Price ; 1.3622
Expected Range : 1.3680 - 1.3567
Support : 1.3580 / 1.3537 / 1.3507
Resistance : 1.3653 / 1.3683 / 1.3726
Recommendation : sell 1.3605, SL 1.3655, TP 1.3555
buy 1.3645, SL 1.3595, TP 1.3680
USD / JPY
7 July 2007 14:52:32
Closed;123.37
Expected Range : 123.93 - 122.87
Support : 123.09 / 122.96 / 122.55
Resistance 123.65 / 123.93 / 124.13
Recommendation : buy 123.10, SL 122.60, TP 123.60
sell 123.90, SL 124.40, TP 123.40
USD/CHF
7 July 2007 15:08:28
Closed;1.2181
Expected Range : 1.2259 - 1.2091
Support : 1.2150 / 1.2120 / 1.2079
Resistance : 1.2221 / 1.2262 / 1.2292
Recommendation : buy 1.2195, SL 1.2165, TP 1.2245
sell 1.2160, SL 1.2210, TP 1.2110
9 July 2007 13:17:22
Expected Range : 22580 - 22750
Support : 22580 / 22520 / 22450
Resistance : 22750 / 22800 / 22850
Recommendation : Sell 22750
TP 22650 , SL 22800
GBP / USD
9 July 2007 13:39:19
Price ; 2.0103
Expected Range : 2.0149 - 2.0042
Support : 2.0056 / 2.0015 / 1.9974
Resistance : 2.0140 / 2.0190 / 2.0206
Recommendation : sell 2.0095, SL 2.0145, TP 2.0045
buy 2.0145, SL 2.0095, TP 2.0195
EUR/USD
9 July 2007 14:06:32
Price ; 1.3622
Expected Range : 1.3680 - 1.3567
Support : 1.3580 / 1.3537 / 1.3507
Resistance : 1.3653 / 1.3683 / 1.3726
Recommendation : sell 1.3605, SL 1.3655, TP 1.3555
buy 1.3645, SL 1.3595, TP 1.3680
USD / JPY
7 July 2007 14:52:32
Closed;123.37
Expected Range : 123.93 - 122.87
Support : 123.09 / 122.96 / 122.55
Resistance 123.65 / 123.93 / 124.13
Recommendation : buy 123.10, SL 122.60, TP 123.60
sell 123.90, SL 124.40, TP 123.40
USD/CHF
7 July 2007 15:08:28
Closed;1.2181
Expected Range : 1.2259 - 1.2091
Support : 1.2150 / 1.2120 / 1.2079
Resistance : 1.2221 / 1.2262 / 1.2292
Recommendation : buy 1.2195, SL 1.2165, TP 1.2245
sell 1.2160, SL 1.2210, TP 1.2110
Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports
UK PPI Data Will Influence Interest Rate Expectations
Sterling will remain very sensitive to inflation data, especially as markets are expecting further interest rate increases. The producer prices impact will be curbed to some extent by the fact that the consumer inflation data is not due until next week.
The rise in energy prices is likely to put further upward pressure on input prices in the latest monthly data, following on from the 1.2% increase recorded last month. In this context, Sterling will tend to strengthen immediately if input prices rise by more than 1.3% over the month while a rise of 0.7% or less would tend to weaken the UK currency.
The Bank of England will also be watching the output prices data very closely and this data is liable to have the greater medium-term impact on interest rate expectations. The central bank is still very concerned that a rise in input prices will also lead on to higher output prices and maintain general upward pressure on inflation. A key first sign of success for the bank will be if companies are less able to pass on cost increases. The latest survey evidence has generally suggested that companies are still pushing prices higher, although pressures do not appear to have intensified.
A monthly increase of more than 0.5% in output prices and 0.4% for core output prices would reinforce fears that corporate pricing policies, allied with higher costs, are pushing overall inflation higher. This would increase the risk of further interest rate increases and provide short-term Sterling support. The UK currency will be vulnerable to significant selling pressure if core output prices do not increase over the month even if there is a robust input prices figure.
Investica
Sterling will remain very sensitive to inflation data, especially as markets are expecting further interest rate increases. The producer prices impact will be curbed to some extent by the fact that the consumer inflation data is not due until next week.
The rise in energy prices is likely to put further upward pressure on input prices in the latest monthly data, following on from the 1.2% increase recorded last month. In this context, Sterling will tend to strengthen immediately if input prices rise by more than 1.3% over the month while a rise of 0.7% or less would tend to weaken the UK currency.
The Bank of England will also be watching the output prices data very closely and this data is liable to have the greater medium-term impact on interest rate expectations. The central bank is still very concerned that a rise in input prices will also lead on to higher output prices and maintain general upward pressure on inflation. A key first sign of success for the bank will be if companies are less able to pass on cost increases. The latest survey evidence has generally suggested that companies are still pushing prices higher, although pressures do not appear to have intensified.
A monthly increase of more than 0.5% in output prices and 0.4% for core output prices would reinforce fears that corporate pricing policies, allied with higher costs, are pushing overall inflation higher. This would increase the risk of further interest rate increases and provide short-term Sterling support. The UK currency will be vulnerable to significant selling pressure if core output prices do not increase over the month even if there is a robust input prices figure.
Investica
OUR RECOMMENDATION
NIKKEI 
9 July 2007 06:44:57
Expected Range : 18180 - 18350
Support : 18180 / 18100 / 18020
Resistance : 18350 / 18410 / 18475
Recommendation : Sell 18300
TP 18200, SL 18350
KOSPI
9 July 2007 06:43:50
Expected Range : 236.00 - 239.50
Support : 236.00 / 235.50 / 235.00
Resistance : 239.50 / 240.00 / 240.50
Recommendation : Sell 239.05
TP 238.05 / SL 239.55
GBP / USD
7 July 2007 04:49:23
Closed:2.0104
Expected Range : 2.0050 - 2.0157
Support : 2.0089 / 2.0057 / 2.0016
Resistance : 2.0140 / 2.0177 / 2.0202
Recommendation : Sell 2.0130 TP 2.0067 SL 2.0180
Buy 2.0080 TP 2.0125 SL 2.0050
EUR/USD
7 July 2007 04:50:22
Closed:1.3620
Expected Range : 1.3564 - 1.3680
Support : 1.3600 / 1.35582 / 1.3546
Resistance : 1.3640 / 1.3663 / 1.3694
Recommendation : sell 1.3650 TP 1.3576 SL 1.3680
USD / JPY
7 July 2007 04:49:55
Closed;123.37
Expected Range : 122.90 - 123.92
Support : 123.00 / 122.76 / 122.59
Resistance : 123.50 / 123.92 / 124.06
Recommendation : Buy 123.05 TP 123.80 SL 122.80
Sell 123.50 TP 122.78 SL 124.00
USD/CHF
7 July 2007 04:48:34
Closed;1.2181
Expected Range : 1.2160 - 1.2250
Support : 1.2158/ 1.2124/ 1.2092
Resistance : 1.2203/ 1.2244 / 1.2283
Recommendation : Buy 1.2170 TP 1.2230 SL 1.2150
Sell 1.2250 TP 1.2180 Sl 1.2300
9 July 2007 06:44:57
Expected Range : 18180 - 18350
Support : 18180 / 18100 / 18020
Resistance : 18350 / 18410 / 18475
Recommendation : Sell 18300
TP 18200, SL 18350
KOSPI
9 July 2007 06:43:50
Expected Range : 236.00 - 239.50
Support : 236.00 / 235.50 / 235.00
Resistance : 239.50 / 240.00 / 240.50
Recommendation : Sell 239.05
TP 238.05 / SL 239.55
GBP / USD
7 July 2007 04:49:23
Closed:2.0104
Expected Range : 2.0050 - 2.0157
Support : 2.0089 / 2.0057 / 2.0016
Resistance : 2.0140 / 2.0177 / 2.0202
Recommendation : Sell 2.0130 TP 2.0067 SL 2.0180
Buy 2.0080 TP 2.0125 SL 2.0050
EUR/USD
7 July 2007 04:50:22
Closed:1.3620
Expected Range : 1.3564 - 1.3680
Support : 1.3600 / 1.35582 / 1.3546
Resistance : 1.3640 / 1.3663 / 1.3694
Recommendation : sell 1.3650 TP 1.3576 SL 1.3680
USD / JPY
7 July 2007 04:49:55
Closed;123.37
Expected Range : 122.90 - 123.92
Support : 123.00 / 122.76 / 122.59
Resistance : 123.50 / 123.92 / 124.06
Recommendation : Buy 123.05 TP 123.80 SL 122.80
Sell 123.50 TP 122.78 SL 124.00
USD/CHF
7 July 2007 04:48:34
Closed;1.2181
Expected Range : 1.2160 - 1.2250
Support : 1.2158/ 1.2124/ 1.2092
Resistance : 1.2203/ 1.2244 / 1.2283
Recommendation : Buy 1.2170 TP 1.2230 SL 1.2150
Sell 1.2250 TP 1.2180 Sl 1.2300
Friday, July 6, 2007
Asian Market Update:
The Dollar held onto its gains in Asian trade after strong US services data soothed concerns that the Federal Reserve might have to cut interest rates later this year.
The Dollar rose against the Euro, Sterling and Yen yesterday after the Institute for Supply Management’s services index rose in June to its highest level in a year, beating forecasts for a small decline.
Activity was subdued in Asian trading however, as the market is waiting for the US payrolls due later today for more clues about the future path of the Fed’s monetary policy.
Economists forecast a median 120,000 new jobs were created in June compared with 157,000 jobs in May, while the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.5%.
Another US report yesterday from private employment services company ADP Employer Services pointed to strong job growth, leading market participants to believe that the Labor Department’s jobs data at 12:30 GMT will be better than expected.
The Dollar is trading at 123.10 Yen, little moved from late New York trade. The Euro is also steady at $1.3595, off a two-month high of $1.3660 hit yesterday.
The European Central Bank left interest rates on hold at 4% yesterday, as expected. At the same time, the central bank suggested it would tightened rates in coming months to fight inflation.
A Reuters poll showed on Tuesday a majority of economists expect the ECB to raise rates in September.
The Bank of England raised interest rates yesterday, as expected, to 5.75% and said inflation risks remained on the upside. A Reuters poll taken shortly after the BoE’s rate announcement showed that just over half the economists surveyed forecast British interest rates will hit 6% this year.
Technicals:
EURUSD
Resistance at 1.3634 and 1.3673/82. Support at 1.3581 and 1.3527.
GBPUSD
Resistance now at 2.0160 and then 2.0200. Support at 2.0095.
USDJPY
Bullish with next target at 123.28 and then 123.75. Support at 122.70 and 122.07/14.
EURJPY
Resistance at 167.50and 168.00. Support at 167.19 and 166.50.
AUDUSD
Prices are pushing higher with resistance at 0.8598. Support at 0.8550 and 0.8494.
FX Overview
The Dollar rose against the Euro, Sterling and Yen yesterday after the Institute for Supply Management’s services index rose in June to its highest level in a year, beating forecasts for a small decline.
Activity was subdued in Asian trading however, as the market is waiting for the US payrolls due later today for more clues about the future path of the Fed’s monetary policy.
Economists forecast a median 120,000 new jobs were created in June compared with 157,000 jobs in May, while the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.5%.
Another US report yesterday from private employment services company ADP Employer Services pointed to strong job growth, leading market participants to believe that the Labor Department’s jobs data at 12:30 GMT will be better than expected.
The Dollar is trading at 123.10 Yen, little moved from late New York trade. The Euro is also steady at $1.3595, off a two-month high of $1.3660 hit yesterday.
The European Central Bank left interest rates on hold at 4% yesterday, as expected. At the same time, the central bank suggested it would tightened rates in coming months to fight inflation.
A Reuters poll showed on Tuesday a majority of economists expect the ECB to raise rates in September.
The Bank of England raised interest rates yesterday, as expected, to 5.75% and said inflation risks remained on the upside. A Reuters poll taken shortly after the BoE’s rate announcement showed that just over half the economists surveyed forecast British interest rates will hit 6% this year.
Technicals:
EURUSD
Resistance at 1.3634 and 1.3673/82. Support at 1.3581 and 1.3527.
GBPUSD
Resistance now at 2.0160 and then 2.0200. Support at 2.0095.
USDJPY
Bullish with next target at 123.28 and then 123.75. Support at 122.70 and 122.07/14.
EURJPY
Resistance at 167.50and 168.00. Support at 167.19 and 166.50.
AUDUSD
Prices are pushing higher with resistance at 0.8598. Support at 0.8550 and 0.8494.
FX Overview
Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports
Today's Key Points
* The bearish steepener is back. US yields soared 10bp yesterday. Equities have retreated in Asia and the FX market is stable.
* Today's main event is the US non-farm payrolls report. We expect a reading below market expectations.
* The Swedish National Debt Office borrowing requirement for June is published today.
Markets Overnight
Yesterday saw a huge move given the weight normally attached to the ADP report and ISM non-manufacturing data. US 10yr yields rose no less than 10bp and 2yr yields soared by 8bp. Once again we are thus facing a bearish steepening of the US curve. The very same trend we saw during the bear market in May-June.
On the equity side the S&P500 stayed unchanged in yesterday's trading session, whereas the Nasdaq rose by 0.4%. So far this morning the Asian stock indices are down.
The FX market has seen few changes since yesterday afternoon. Since the EUR/USD broke through 136 on the downside the cross has remained unchanged just below 136. The EUR/JPY is still close to the all time high levels as it lingers above 167.2. The Scandinavian currencies have not seen any major shifts. The EUR/NOK has continued its move towards 790.
Global Daily
The release of the US employment report today is likely to set the tone in the financial markets during the coming weeks. We expect non-farm payrolls to show job creation of 115k, down from 147k and somewhat below consensus of 120k. However, risks are clearly to the upside following yesterday's strong ADP employment survey, which posted an increase by 150k. The US unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.5%.
As far as yields are concerned, though, the risk ought to be on the downside, since the market has already priced in a strong report. Large surprises in the employment report will likely push the EUR/USD out of its recent range of 1.358-1.368 - and if our employment estimate is correct, we expect a test of 1.368. In the UK, the report on industrial production could be interesting to follow after the Bank of England hiked rates yesterday. We expect the EUR/GBP to move towards the 0.67 level in the coming week.
Scandi Daily
The Swedish National Debt Office borrowing requirement for June is published at 09:30. The SNDO forecasts SEK 0.0bn, which is 4.7bn lower than the old forecast due to eg higher tax revenues and higher dividends on state-owned companies. The full year forecast was recently raised to 138bn from 112bn. Hence, money continues to flood into government finances. The EUR/SEK and 2y government yield spread remained stable yesterday at around 9.15 and 25bp respectively.
Danske Bank
* The bearish steepener is back. US yields soared 10bp yesterday. Equities have retreated in Asia and the FX market is stable.
* Today's main event is the US non-farm payrolls report. We expect a reading below market expectations.
* The Swedish National Debt Office borrowing requirement for June is published today.
Markets Overnight
Yesterday saw a huge move given the weight normally attached to the ADP report and ISM non-manufacturing data. US 10yr yields rose no less than 10bp and 2yr yields soared by 8bp. Once again we are thus facing a bearish steepening of the US curve. The very same trend we saw during the bear market in May-June.
On the equity side the S&P500 stayed unchanged in yesterday's trading session, whereas the Nasdaq rose by 0.4%. So far this morning the Asian stock indices are down.
The FX market has seen few changes since yesterday afternoon. Since the EUR/USD broke through 136 on the downside the cross has remained unchanged just below 136. The EUR/JPY is still close to the all time high levels as it lingers above 167.2. The Scandinavian currencies have not seen any major shifts. The EUR/NOK has continued its move towards 790.
Global Daily
The release of the US employment report today is likely to set the tone in the financial markets during the coming weeks. We expect non-farm payrolls to show job creation of 115k, down from 147k and somewhat below consensus of 120k. However, risks are clearly to the upside following yesterday's strong ADP employment survey, which posted an increase by 150k. The US unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.5%.
As far as yields are concerned, though, the risk ought to be on the downside, since the market has already priced in a strong report. Large surprises in the employment report will likely push the EUR/USD out of its recent range of 1.358-1.368 - and if our employment estimate is correct, we expect a test of 1.368. In the UK, the report on industrial production could be interesting to follow after the Bank of England hiked rates yesterday. We expect the EUR/GBP to move towards the 0.67 level in the coming week.
Scandi Daily
The Swedish National Debt Office borrowing requirement for June is published at 09:30. The SNDO forecasts SEK 0.0bn, which is 4.7bn lower than the old forecast due to eg higher tax revenues and higher dividends on state-owned companies. The full year forecast was recently raised to 138bn from 112bn. Hence, money continues to flood into government finances. The EUR/SEK and 2y government yield spread remained stable yesterday at around 9.15 and 25bp respectively.
Danske Bank
OUR RECOMMENDATION
HANGSENG
6 July 2007 14:05:47
Expected Range : 22450 - 22550
Support : 22450 / 22400 / 22350
Resistance : 22550 / 22600 / 22650
Recommendation : Sell 22550
TP 22450 , SL 22600
GBP / USD
6 July 2007 14:07:20
Price ; 2.0103
Expected Range : 2.0173 - 2.0016
Support : 2.0042 / 2.0016 / 1.9928
Resistance : 2.0127 / 2.0173 / 2.0206
Recommendation : sell 2.0080, SL 2.0130, TP 2.0030
buy 2.0130, SL 2.0080, TP 2.0180
EUR/USD
6 July 2007 14:30:10
Price ; 1.3588
Expected Range : 1.3630 - 1.3482
Support : 1.3545 / 1.3515 / 1.3485
Resistance : 1.3603 / 1.3630 / 1.3680
Recommendation : sell 1.3575, SL 1.3635, TP 1.3525
sell 1.3630, SL 1.3680, TP 1.3580
USD / JPY
6 July 2007 14:52:51
Price ; 123.18
Expected Range : 124.13 - 122.07
Support : 123.00 / 122.68 / 122.07
Resistance : 123.55 / 123.93 / 124.13
Recommendation : buy 123.60, SL 123.10, TP 124.10
sell 122.95, SL 123.45, TP 122.45
USD/CHF
6 July 2007 15:09:58
Price ; 1.2196
Expected Range : 1.2259 - 1.2091
Support : 1.2160 / 1.2091 / 1.2055
Resistance : 1.2225 / 1.2259 / 1.2320
Recommendation : sell 1.2255-60, SL 1.2305, TP 1.2205
buy 1.2205, SL 1.2155, TP 1.2255
6 July 2007 14:05:47
Expected Range : 22450 - 22550
Support : 22450 / 22400 / 22350
Resistance : 22550 / 22600 / 22650
Recommendation : Sell 22550
TP 22450 , SL 22600
GBP / USD
6 July 2007 14:07:20
Price ; 2.0103
Expected Range : 2.0173 - 2.0016
Support : 2.0042 / 2.0016 / 1.9928
Resistance : 2.0127 / 2.0173 / 2.0206
Recommendation : sell 2.0080, SL 2.0130, TP 2.0030
buy 2.0130, SL 2.0080, TP 2.0180
EUR/USD
6 July 2007 14:30:10
Price ; 1.3588
Expected Range : 1.3630 - 1.3482
Support : 1.3545 / 1.3515 / 1.3485
Resistance : 1.3603 / 1.3630 / 1.3680
Recommendation : sell 1.3575, SL 1.3635, TP 1.3525
sell 1.3630, SL 1.3680, TP 1.3580
USD / JPY
6 July 2007 14:52:51
Price ; 123.18
Expected Range : 124.13 - 122.07
Support : 123.00 / 122.68 / 122.07
Resistance : 123.55 / 123.93 / 124.13
Recommendation : buy 123.60, SL 123.10, TP 124.10
sell 122.95, SL 123.45, TP 122.45
USD/CHF
6 July 2007 15:09:58
Price ; 1.2196
Expected Range : 1.2259 - 1.2091
Support : 1.2160 / 1.2091 / 1.2055
Resistance : 1.2225 / 1.2259 / 1.2320
Recommendation : sell 1.2255-60, SL 1.2305, TP 1.2205
buy 1.2205, SL 1.2155, TP 1.2255
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